← Back to fixtures

FC Koln vs SV Elversberg

Fri 27 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 11 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

FC Koln win: 43.3%

Draw: 17.6%

SV Elversberg win: 39.1%

Predicted: FC Koln

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.44

More corners: SV Elversberg (38.1% home / 61.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: SV Elversberg

Yes

Probability SV Elversberg wins or draws: 55.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (43.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners SV Elversberg (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat SV Elversberg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (56.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.